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₿ BITCOIN HALVING COUNTDOWN · 2028
THE NEXT SUPPLY SHOCK
ARRIVES IN
APRIL 2028
BLOCK 1,050,000
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WHAT IS THE BITCOIN HALVING?
The Bitcoin halving is a programmed event in Bitcoin's protocol that cuts the block reward paid to miners by 50% every 210,000 blocks — approximately every four years. It is the mechanism that controls Bitcoin's supply schedule and ensures the total supply never exceeds 21 million coins. The next halving occurs at block 1,050,000, estimated in April 2028, reducing the reward from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC per block.
ALSO CALLED
BTC halving
FREQUENCY
~4 years
NEXT BLOCK
1,050,000
NEW REWARD
1.5625 BTC
CURRENT BLOCK
962,041
BLOCKS REMAINING
87,959
CURRENT REWARD
3.125 BTC
POST-HALVING REWARD
1.5625 BTC
BTC MINED
95.57%
HOW THE HALVING WORKS
ALL 5 HALVINGS
| # | DATE | BLOCK | PRE-REWARD | POST-REWARD | BTC PRICE | CYCLE HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Nov 28, 2012 | 210,000 | 50 BTC | 25 BTC | $12 | $1,150 |
| #2 | Jul 9, 2016 | 420,000 | 25 BTC | 12.5 BTC | $650 | $19,700 |
| #3 | May 11, 2020 | 630,000 | 12.5 BTC | 6.25 BTC | $8,600 | $68,700 |
| #4 | Apr 19, 2024 | 840,000 | 6.25 BTC | 3.125 BTC | $63,700 | NEW ATH |
| #5 | ~Apr 2028NEXT | 1,050,000 | 3.125 BTC | 1.5625 BTC | TBD | ? |
Cycle High = peak BTC price in the 18 months following each halving. Past performance does not indicate future results.
BTC PRICE AFTER EACH HALVING
BTC price change measured 30, 90, 180, and 365 days after each past halving. All four cycles eventually reached new all-time highs, though timing varied significantly.
| HALVING | DATE | PRICE AT HALVING | +30 DAYS | +90 DAYS | +180 DAYS | +365 DAYS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Nov 28, 2012 | $12 | +12% | +150% | +983% | +9,067% |
| #2 | Jul 9, 2016 | $650 | -12% | -5% | +57% | +292% |
| #3 | May 11, 2020 | $8,600 | +13% | +36% | +80% | +540% |
| #4 | Apr 19, 2024 | $63,700 | +4% | +2% | -3% | +32% |
Approximate returns based on closing prices at each interval. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
PREDICTION MARKETS
LOADING PREDICTION MARKETS...
SUPPLY SCHEDULE
96.87% OF ALL BTC MINED BY 2028.
After the fifth halving at block 1,050,000, approximately 20,343,750 BTC will have been issued. Only 656,250 BTC left to mine over the following century.
Currently 20,068,878 BTC mined — 95.57% of the 21 million total. The last Bitcoin is not expected until around 2140.
HALVING #1 — 201250%
10,500,000 BTC
HALVING #2 — 201675%
15,750,000 BTC
HALVING #3 — 202087.5%
18,375,000 BTC
HALVING #4 — 202493.75%
19,687,500 BTC
HALVING #5 — 202896.87%
20,343,750 BTC
HALVING #6 — 203298.44%
20,671,875 BTC
MINER IMPACT — 4 PHASES
SHOCK
IMMEDIATELY AFTER
Revenue per block drops 50% overnight. Less efficient miners go offline. Hashrate dips.
RESET
WEEKS 1-8
Difficulty adjusts every 2,016 blocks. Surviving miners' margins recover as competition falls.
RECOVERY
MONTHS 3-12
New, more efficient ASIC hardware enters the market. Operators upgrade to restore profitability.
ATH
12+ MONTHS
Rising BTC price in post-halving cycles compensates for reduced subsidy. Hashrate hits new records.
MINERS ALWAYS ADAPT. THE NETWORK ALWAYS SURVIVES.
The halving is often feared by miners as a death sentence for profitability, yet the Bitcoin network has emerged stronger from each one. The difficulty adjustment mechanism recalibrates every 2,016 blocks, ensuring the network maintains its 10-minute block time regardless of how many miners participate.
After the 2028 halving, transaction fees will represent a growing share of miner revenue. As Bitcoin adoption grows and the mempool fills with higher-value transactions, fee income is expected to partially offset the declining subsidy.
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FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
What is the Bitcoin halving?
The Bitcoin halving is a programmed event hardcoded into Bitcoin's protocol that cuts the block reward paid to miners in half approximately every four years, or more precisely, every 210,000 blocks. When Bitcoin launched in 2009, miners received 50 BTC per block. After the first halving in 2012 the reward became 25 BTC, then 12.5 BTC in 2016, 6.25 BTC in 2020, and 3.125 BTC after the fourth halving in April 2024. The fifth halving will reduce the reward to 1.5625 BTC per block.
When is the next Bitcoin halving?
The next Bitcoin halving will occur at block 1,050,000, estimated to arrive in April 2028. The exact date is not fixed. It depends on the average time it takes miners to find each block. Bitcoin targets one block every 10 minutes, and the difficulty adjustment mechanism recalibrates every 2,016 blocks to maintain that pace. The countdown above uses the live block height from the Bitcoin network to give you the most current estimate.
What happens to the Bitcoin price after a halving?
Historically, each Bitcoin halving has been followed by a significant price increase, though the timing varies and past performance does not guarantee future results. After the 2012 halving, Bitcoin's price rose from roughly $12 to over $1,000 within a year. Following the 2016 halving, price climbed from around $650 to nearly $20,000 by late 2017. After the 2020 halving, Bitcoin reached an all-time high near $69,000 in late 2021. After the April 2024 halving, Bitcoin set new all-time highs above $100,000.
How does the Bitcoin halving affect miners?
The halving immediately cuts miners' revenue in half in BTC terms overnight. Miners who cannot cover their electricity and operational costs at the reduced reward are forced to shut down, reducing total network hashrate until difficulty adjusts downward and the remaining miners become profitable again. Historically, hashrate has recovered and reached new all-time highs within months of each halving. The 2028 halving will drop the block reward to 1.5625 BTC, making miner profitability increasingly dependent on transaction fee revenue.
What is the block reward after the 2028 Bitcoin halving?
After the fifth Bitcoin halving at block 1,050,000, the block reward will drop from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC per block. At 144 blocks per day, miners will collectively earn approximately 225 BTC per day from block subsidies, down from 450 BTC per day under the current reward.
How many Bitcoin halvings are left?
Bitcoin is designed to have a total of 33 halvings before the block reward reaches zero, expected around the year 2140. After the fifth halving in 2028, there will be 28 halvings remaining. After approximately the 32nd halving around 2036, the block reward will fall below 1 satoshi and will round to zero. At that point, transaction fees alone will compensate miners for securing the network.
Why does Bitcoin have a halving mechanism?
Satoshi Nakamoto built the halving into Bitcoin's protocol to create a predictable, disinflationary supply schedule, unlike fiat currencies which can be printed in unlimited quantities by central banks. The halving ensures that the total supply of Bitcoin never exceeds 21 million coins. This controlled scarcity is a foundational part of Bitcoin's value proposition as digital gold.
What percentage of Bitcoin has already been mined?
As of 2026, approximately 19.7 million of the 21 million maximum Bitcoin supply have already been mined, roughly 93.8%. By the time the fifth halving occurs at block 1,050,000 in 2028, approximately 20.34 million BTC will have been mined, representing 96.87% of the total supply. The last Bitcoin is not expected to be mined until around 2140.
What was the Bitcoin price at each previous halving?
Bitcoin's price at each halving: First halving (November 28, 2012, block 210,000): approximately $12. Second halving (July 9, 2016, block 420,000): approximately $650. Third halving (May 11, 2020, block 630,000): approximately $8,600. Fourth halving (April 19, 2024, block 840,000): approximately $63,700. In each cycle, Bitcoin's price reached a new all-time high in the 12 to 18 months following the halving.
What does Polymarket say about Bitcoin's price after the halving?
According to Polymarket's prediction markets, traders have placed over $45 million in active bets on where Bitcoin's price will end up by December 31, 2026 — the first full year after the April 2024 halving. The market currently prices a roughly 12.5% chance Bitcoin reaches $100,000, a 4% chance it reaches $150,000, and less than 2% for $200,000 or higher. These probabilities update in real time as new traders enter the markets. Prediction markets are considered among the most accurate forecasting tools because participants risk actual money on their beliefs, unlike analyst price targets which carry no financial accountability.
What is the Polymarket probability for Bitcoin hitting $100K in 2026?
Polymarket's market for 'Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?' is currently trading at approximately 12.5% YES — roughly 1-in-8 odds. With over $2 million in volume, it is one of the most liquid Bitcoin price prediction markets. At $110,000, the YES price is around 9%. At $150,000, it falls to roughly 4%. These odds reflect the collective judgment of thousands of traders putting real capital behind their forecasts, and they update in real time as Bitcoin's price moves and new information enters the market.
What are prediction markets and how do they forecast Bitcoin prices?
Prediction markets like Polymarket allow participants to buy and sell shares in yes/no outcomes of future events. For Bitcoin price predictions, a YES share for 'Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?' is currently priced at 12.5 cents, meaning the market assigns a 12.5% probability to that outcome. When you buy YES shares and Bitcoin does reach $100,000 by that date, each share pays out $1.00 — a profit of 87.5 cents. When you buy NO shares, you profit if Bitcoin does not reach the target. Because participants risk real money, prediction markets are theoretically more accurate than opinion polls or analyst forecasts. The Polymarket Bitcoin 2026 event has accumulated over $45 million in total trading volume, making it one of the most significant real-money Bitcoin price forecasts available.
How much will Bitcoin miners earn per day after the 2028 halving?
After the fifth Bitcoin halving at block 1,050,000 in approximately April 2028, the block reward drops from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC. At Bitcoin's target of 144 blocks per day, miners will collectively earn approximately 225 BTC per day from block subsidies, down from roughly 450 BTC per day under the current reward. At a Bitcoin price of $80,000, that equals roughly $18 million per day in subsidy revenue across the entire mining industry, compared to $36 million today. Transaction fees will increasingly supplement subsidy income, particularly during periods of high on-chain activity. Miners with the lowest electricity costs and newest ASIC hardware will be best positioned to remain profitable through the transition.
What is the Bitcoin stock-to-flow model and how does the halving affect it?
The stock-to-flow (S2F) model, popularised by analyst PlanB, measures Bitcoin's scarcity by dividing total existing supply (stock) by annual new issuance (flow). A higher ratio means greater scarcity. Before the 2024 halving, Bitcoin's S2F ratio was approximately 56, similar to gold. After the 2024 halving reduced annual issuance to roughly 164,250 BTC per year, the S2F ratio doubled to approximately 112, making Bitcoin mathematically twice as scarce as gold by this measure. After the 2028 halving cuts issuance to approximately 82,125 BTC per year, the S2F ratio will reach roughly 250. The model predicts that rising scarcity drives price increases, though the model has underperformed as a price prediction tool since 2022 and should be treated as one lens among many rather than a reliable forecast.
What is the complete Bitcoin halving schedule through 2140?
Bitcoin halvings occur every 210,000 blocks. The complete schedule: Halving 1 (Nov 2012, block 210,000): 25 BTC reward. Halving 2 (Jul 2016, block 420,000): 12.5 BTC. Halving 3 (May 2020, block 630,000): 6.25 BTC. Halving 4 (Apr 2024, block 840,000): 3.125 BTC. Halving 5 (est. Apr 2028, block 1,050,000): 1.5625 BTC. Halving 6 (est. 2032, block 1,260,000): 0.78125 BTC. Halving 7 (est. 2036, block 1,470,000): 0.390625 BTC. This continues until approximately the 33rd halving around 2140, when the reward rounds to zero and the final Bitcoin is mined. After that point, miners are compensated solely by transaction fees.
COINCOVERAGE.ORGDATA: MEMPOOL.SPACE · BLOCK HEIGHT UPDATES EVERY 10 MIN